In the past few weeks, several polls have shown Governor Rick Perry building a larger and larger lead over his rivals in the Republican Primary.  Today that lead is virtually insurmountable and Perry will very likely win the Republican Primary and the fall general election, according to a poll released by the Texas Tribune and the University of Texas.

According to the Tribune’s story, “Gov. Rick Perry is well ahead of U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and former Wharton County GOP chair Debra Medina, who are locked in a statistical tie for second place in a GOP gubernatorial primary that could go to a runoff.

Perry had the support of 45 percent of self-identified Republican primary voters — short of the majority required for an outright win. Hutchison had 21 percent and Medina had 19 percent, a two-percentage-point divide that’s smaller than the poll’s margin of error.”  In the Democratic Primary, Houston Mayor Bill White possesses a commanding 50-11 lead over Farouk Shami.

Having followed the Republican Primary campaign somewhat closely, I can tell you that I am not surprised by these numbers and find them to be perhaps the most accurate I’ve seen thus far as well as demonstrative of Perry’s building momentum and Hutchison’s flailing efforts.   On the few occasions I have encountered Governor Perry in this election, he has had a keen sense of purpose and energy about him and his campaign has been extremely well run, void of gaffes and singularly clear on message.  Hutchison, on the other hand, has only produced moments of energy, rarely connecting with a message and failing to communicate her vision for what a Kay Hutchison-governed Texas would and should look like.

Medina has created a quite a buzz, tapping into voter disaffection for the political process but, as most of us were aware, she is not quite ready for prime time. I suspect her numbers will peak at 19 and she will fade a bit between now and the March 2nd primary.

The question is will Perry win without a runoff. I believe he can and likely will.  He is a passionate campaigner and his team is running on all cylinders. I have quietly questioned the team’s continued contrast message — that’s negative campaigning for you neophytes — at this stage of the game and suspect we will see more about his vision from the Perry camp in the closing weeks.  He should pick up a few more points from Medina followers, those who flirted with her but recognize she’s really not in a position to govern, much less win.  Hutchison hasn’t demonstrated a willingness to stick with a strategy — any strategy — over any extended period of time.  With Perry currently at 45, he only needs a few points from both and he’s over the top and off to face White in November.

For his part, White has run a smooth, although easy, campaign while Shami has run a surprisingly disappointing race, in my view.

Tribune editor Ross Ramsey breaks out the entire race here and provides the detailed questionnaire as well as the cross tabulations for those who really want to dive into the numbers.